Brokerage expects gold and silver to consolidate through the second half of 2026 before a fresh multi-year rally, driven by easing global monetary policy, de-dollarisation, and continued demand for safe-haven assets.
After delivering exceptional gains over the past two years, gold is expected to enter a period of healthy consolidation during the second half of 2026 before resuming its long-term upward trend, according to Kotak Securities. The brokerage believes investors should use price corrections as accumulation opportunities rather than interpreting them as a reversal of the broader bullish trend.
Kotak Securities expects gold to trade within a broad range during the remainder of the year, while silver is also likely to witness consolidation with relatively higher volatility. Although near-term upside may remain limited, analysts remain optimistic about the structural outlook for precious metals, expecting the next major bull market to emerge from 2027 as global macroeconomic conditions become increasingly supportive.
The report suggests that long-term investors should maintain a disciplined investment approach, using market declines to gradually build exposure instead of chasing prices after sharp rallies.
Gold Expected to Consolidate Before Resuming Uptrend
According to Kotak Securities, spot gold is likely to trade between $3,400 and $4,400 per ounce during the second half of calendar year 2026.
The brokerage believes the recent correction from record highs is a normal phase following a strong multi-year rally and should not be viewed as the beginning of a long-term bearish trend.
Historically, gold has experienced corrections of around 30–40% after major advances before beginning the next leg of its secular bull market. Analysts believe the current price action follows a similar historical pattern.
Important support levels are identified around $3,900, followed by $3,600 and $3,400, while $4,400 is expected to remain a major resistance level. A sustained breakout above this level could signal the beginning of a fresh bullish phase.
Investors Should Use Corrections to Build Positions
Rather than avoiding the precious metal during periods of weakness, Kotak Securities recommends accumulating gold gradually whenever prices move closer to key support zones.
The brokerage considers the $3,600–$3,900 range an attractive accumulation zone for investors with a medium- to long-term investment horizon.
Gold continues to serve as an important portfolio diversifier due to its ability to preserve purchasing power during periods of inflation, economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and financial market volatility.
Analysts believe disciplined buying during corrections can potentially enhance long-term returns compared with investing aggressively after strong rallies.
Silver Offers Higher Risk and Higher Potential
Silver is expected to remain more volatile than gold during the second half of 2026.
Kotak Securities projects silver prices to fluctuate within a broad $60–$88 per ounce range, reflecting both investment demand and its significant industrial usage.
The brokerage identifies major support around $70, followed by $64–65 and $58–60, while resistance is expected near $80 and $88–90.
A sustained move above $90 could indicate renewed bullish momentum and potentially pave the way for another strong rally.
Because silver has a relatively smaller market size and greater industrial demand exposure, its price movements are generally sharper than those of gold.
Federal Reserve Policy Could Become the Key Trigger
One of the brokerage's most important long-term assumptions is a potential shift in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Kotak Securities expects the next secular bull market in precious metals to begin from 2027, supported by an eventual transition from a relatively hawkish interest rate environment toward a more accommodative policy stance.
Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making precious metals more attractive to investors.
If global central banks begin easing monetary policy over the coming years, investment demand for gold and silver could strengthen considerably.
Structural Drivers Continue to Support Precious Metals
Beyond monetary policy, Kotak Securities believes several structural trends will continue supporting precious metals over the long term.
The brokerage highlights three major themes:
Debasement – Continued expansion of money supply and fiscal deficits could weaken the purchasing power of fiat currencies.
De-dollarisation – More countries are exploring alternatives to the US dollar for international trade and reserve management, increasing interest in gold as a reserve asset.
De-globalisation – Rising geopolitical tensions and supply chain realignments are encouraging investors to increase allocations to safe-haven assets.
Together, these long-term trends are expected to provide a favourable backdrop for both gold and silver over the next several years.
Ambitious Long-Term Price Targets
While maintaining a cautious near-term outlook, Kotak Securities remains optimistic about the longer-term price potential of precious metals.
Based on historical market cycles, the brokerage believes gold could eventually approach $9,000 per ounce if the next structural bull market develops over the coming years.
Similarly, silver could move towards $150 per ounce, supported by rising industrial demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles, electronics, and increasing investment interest.
These projections represent long-term scenarios and are subject to evolving macroeconomic conditions, central bank policies, inflation trends, and geopolitical developments.
Gold's Strategic Importance in Investment Portfolios
Gold continues to remain one of the most preferred defensive assets globally.
Apart from acting as an inflation hedge, the precious metal helps diversify portfolios during periods of equity market volatility and economic uncertainty.
Central banks around the world have also been steadily increasing their gold reserves, reinforcing long-term demand for the metal.
Financial advisors generally recommend maintaining strategic exposure to gold as part of a diversified investment portfolio, especially during uncertain macroeconomic environments.
Outlook
Kotak Securities believes the current correction in gold and silver represents a temporary consolidation phase within a larger long-term bullish cycle. While prices may remain range-bound through the second half of 2026, the brokerage expects improving macroeconomic conditions, a potential shift in global monetary policy, continued central bank buying, and structural changes in the global financial system to support the next major rally beginning in 2027.
For long-term investors, gradual accumulation during market corrections could prove more beneficial than attempting to predict short-term price movements. Although commodity markets are inherently volatile, gold and silver continue to play an important role as portfolio diversifiers and potential beneficiaries of long-term global economic and monetary trends.