Global Events

World Markets.

US Market Mixed

Dow Down 40 (-0.08%)

NASDAQ Down 23 (-0.09%), S&P UP 31 (+0.41)

European Market Positive

FTSE UP 28 (+0.27%), CAC UP 94 (+1.14%),

DAX UP 149 (+0.60%)

Asian Markets Mixed

Nikkei Down 776 (-1.15%), Hang S. Down 183 (-0.73%),

Taiwan Down 562 (-1.23%), Kospi Down 261 (-3.02) , Shanghai UP 7 (+0.18%),

St.T UP 1 Points (+0.03%)

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US markets mixed, Europene up and Asian markets down
Dow John jumps 875 points and hits lifetime high
US futures slips pre-job data
US tech and AI stocks extend sell-off
Brent crude extends losses on peace hopes, down 3% and at near 95$ per barrel
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Comfort in the Data, Caution in the Outlook
I personally expect the RBI to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% while retaining a cautious and data-dependent stance.
Inflation: Headline CPI inflation moderated to 3.48% in April, remaining below the RBI’s 4% target. However, upside risks have increased due to Brent crude prices rising above USD 90/bbl, higher domestic fuel prices and the potential impact of El Niño-related weather disruptions on food inflation. Inflation forecast may increase to 4.8% and growth forecast may dip to 6.8% for FY27.
Crude Oil & Fuel Prices: Elevated oil prices pose risks to both inflation and the current account balance, while recent fuel price increases could have second-round effects on transportation and input costs across sectors. Any ease in geopolitical tension may ease this but with time and not immediately.
Liquidity: System liquidity remains comfortable, supported by RBI liquidity operations (INR 2-3 lakh crore), although the central bank is expected to remain vigilant amid potential FX-related liquidity fluctuations. RBI has been continuously providing VRRs and has also announced a buy-sell swap. This indicates that the RBI is currently not signalling an immediate defensive interest rate hike.
OIS Market: The 1Y OIS at 6.16% reflects market caution and suggests that expectations for further policy easing have been scaled back and hikes are expected in the upcoming policies. RBI may also look at how US Fed policy pans out. 
CD Market: Money market rates remain elevated with 3M CDs at ~7.30% and 6M CDs at ~7.60%, offering attractive carry while indicating persistent tightness in term funding conditions.
FX Market: RBI usually does not use rate hikes for FX management. RBI may continue to manage FX volatility through FX reserves and focus on regulatory measures, while potentially exploring incentives to boost USD inflows.
Overall View: Despite the benign April CPI print of 3.48%, the combination of elevated crude oil prices, higher fuel costs and potential El Niño-related food inflation risks warrants caution. I expect the RBI to keep rates unchanged while emphasizing vigilance on inflation risks and maintaining adequate liquidity to ensure orderly market conditions.

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Gift Nifty UP 27 (+0.11)
Dow Future Down 65
Nasdaq Future Down 360

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Domestic Events

Dollar Down 0.04 at 99.40

Rupees Down 0.07 paisa to close at 95.79 against US$

Sector Watch

Banking, Realty, Auto, OMCS, Aviation, Paint, Defence, Pharma

Sector Avoid

Oil & Gas, Metal, Power, FMCG, Capital Goods

Indian Markets Trend

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ALL EYES ON...
RBI monetary policy outcome.
Q4 FY26 GDP numbers
RBI to maintain the repo rate at 5.25%

Primary Markets
CMR Green IPO booked 9.6x on Day 2.
Hexagon Nutrition IPO opens today, price Rs.42 to 45.

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Today Listing

Aureate Tradde (BSESME)
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Q-4 Results
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INDIAN INDICES CLOSED ON 17-10-025

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Daily Level : 05-06-2026

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