IMD predicts clear skies over the national capital while isolated heavy rainfall is likely across parts of the Northeast, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu; wet conditions may persist in several southern and northeastern states into early October

Delhi is expected to remain largely dry on Wednesday, September 30, even as several parts of southern and northeastern India brace for heavy rainfall, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The weather agency has forecast mainly clear skies over the national capital, with temperatures expected to remain relatively comfortable compared with recent weather conditions. At the same time, isolated heavy rainfall is likely across several states, including Assam, Meghalaya, interior Karnataka, Kerala, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and parts of Tamil Nadu.

The contrasting weather pattern highlights the uneven distribution of rainfall across the country as the southwest monsoon season approaches its final phase.

Delhi Likely to Remain Dry Through October 5

The IMD has forecast no rain and mainly clear skies over Delhi on Wednesday, with the maximum temperature expected to remain between 32°C and 34°C and the minimum between 20°C and 22°C.

The dry spell is expected to continue until around October 5.

From Thursday, daytime temperatures are forecast to rise gradually, with maximum temperatures expected to remain in the 33°C–35°C range. Minimum temperatures could also increase to around 23°C–25°C by Sunday.

The forecast marks a shift from the cooler conditions experienced across parts of the capital earlier this week.

Delhi Recorded Light Rain Earlier

Although Wednesday is expected to remain dry, some parts of Delhi received light rainfall during the 24-hour period ending at 8:30 am on Tuesday.

The Ridge recorded 2.2 mm of rainfall, while Palam received 1 mm and Ayanagar recorded 0.7 mm. Safdarjung recorded only trace rainfall.

No rainfall was recorded at the main weather stations between 8:30 am and 5:30 pm on Tuesday.

Delhi also remained cooler than normal on Tuesday. Safdarjung recorded a maximum temperature of 32.4°C, which was 2.3°C below normal. The minimum temperature stood at 21°C, also 2.3°C below normal.

The Ridge recorded a significantly lower minimum temperature of 16.9°C, around six degrees below normal.

Southwest Monsoon Has Withdrawn From Delhi

The southwest monsoon withdrew from Delhi on September 23, two days ahead of its normal withdrawal date of September 25.

With the monsoon having moved away from the national capital, the IMD expects predominantly dry conditions in the coming days.

The rising temperatures forecast toward the weekend could mark a gradual transition toward more typical post-monsoon conditions in northern India.

Heavy Rainfall Expected Across Northeast India

While Delhi is expected to remain dry, the Northeast is likely to see active rainfall.

The IMD has forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Assam and Meghalaya, along with Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Wednesday.

Rainfall activity over Arunachal Pradesh as well as Assam and Meghalaya is expected to continue through October 5, with isolated to scattered showers likely during the period.

The persistent rainfall could affect local transportation and outdoor activity in vulnerable areas, particularly where heavy showers occur over short periods.

Southern India to Remain Wet

Several southern states are also expected to receive significant rainfall.

The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall at isolated locations over:

• Interior Karnataka

• Kerala and Mahe

• Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal

• Rayalaseema

• Parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh

South interior Karnataka is expected to experience fairly widespread to widespread rainfall through Wednesday.

Scattered rainfall is also likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.

Kerala and Mahe are expected to receive scattered rainfall on Wednesday, with rainfall activity likely to become more widespread from October 1.

Thunderstorms and Lightning Likely in Several Areas

Along with heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms accompanied by lightning are expected over parts of southern India.

The IMD has forecast thunderstorms with lightning over Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.

Thunderstorm activity is also possible over coastal Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Odisha.

Residents in affected areas have been advised to remain cautious during periods of lightning and thunderstorms.

Weather System Over Bay of Bengal

The rainfall activity across parts of eastern and northeastern India is also being influenced by a weather system over the Bay of Bengal.

A depression over coastal Myanmar and the adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal is expected to weaken into a well-marked low-pressure area over coastal Myanmar, adjoining southeast Bangladesh and the northeast Bay of Bengal during the next 12 hours.

The system is then expected to move northwestwards towards southeast Bangladesh and adjoining areas of Myanmar, Mizoram and Tripura.

The movement of this system is expected to influence rainfall activity over parts of the Northeast and adjoining regions.

Fishermen Advised to Avoid Affected Sea Areas

The IMD has forecast squally weather along and off the north Myanmar and Bangladesh coasts and adjoining parts of the Bay of Bengal on Wednesday.

Fishermen have been advised against venturing into the affected marine areas.

The advisory is particularly relevant as strong winds and rough sea conditions associated with weather systems can create hazardous conditions for fishing and coastal operations.

Potential Impact on Agriculture and Markets

The uneven rainfall distribution could have different implications for agriculture across regions.

Adequate rainfall in southern and northeastern states can support soil moisture and agricultural activity where precipitation remains within manageable levels. However, heavy or prolonged rainfall can also disrupt harvesting, transportation and local supply chains, particularly in areas experiencing intense showers.

For agricultural markets, the key factor will be whether rainfall remains beneficial or becomes excessive in crop-producing regions.

Rainfall can also influence demand for irrigation, electricity and agricultural inputs, creating varying effects across related sectors.

Key Weather Takeaways

Market Outlook

The weather pattern is likely to remain an important variable for agriculture, commodities, power demand and regional economic activity as India moves into October.

For investors, the focus will be on the intensity and duration of rainfall rather than rainfall alone. Normal or moderate precipitation can support agricultural activity, while excessive rainfall may create logistical disruptions and affect crop quality or harvesting schedules.

The continued wet spell across parts of southern and northeastern India could also influence demand for electricity, agricultural inputs and transportation services. Meanwhile, the drying trend in northern India, including Delhi, signals a gradual transition away from the southwest monsoon season.

In the near term, investors may therefore track regional rainfall distribution, crop conditions, reservoir levels and commodity prices for potential sector-level implications.